My FANS projections for the 2014 Yankees

Fangraphs hosts a crowdsourcing platform that allows fans to fill out ballots predicting how players will perform statistically in 2014. All of the projections they receive are aggregated to create the FANS projections you see on individual player pages. If you haven’t checked it out yet, I highly recommend you do so. It’s a lot of fun (well, at least I think so) and forms the basis for a set of player projections that could theoretically provide some insight not captured by the algorithm-based projection systems.

My projections for the 2014 Yankees are below. I have the team’s hitters totaling 18.5 WAR and their pitchers with 16.4. Last season, these totals would have ranked 19th and 12th in baseball, respectively. This works out to about 83 wins, which jives with what PECOTA (82) and Davenport (85) are forecasting this season. The Yankees are clearly good enough to be in the playoff hunt, but at this early hour, it’s not clear if they’ll have the talent to keep up with the Rays and Red Sox. Plenty can change between now and October, though.

Catchers:

Player PA’s wOBA WAR
Brian McCann 441 .331 3.7
Francisco Cervelli 162 .283 0.7
J.R. Murphy 54 .299 0.2
Austin Romine 54 .285 0.1

 

Infielders:

Player PA’s wOBA WAR
Kelly Johnson 540 .317 1.9
Mark Teixeira 580 .328 1.5
Scott Sizemore 292 .311 0.5
Brian Roberts 270 .298 0.3
Dean Anna 162 .283 0.2
Derek Jeter 330 .305 0.1
Corban Joseph 60 .309 0.1
Jose Pirela 54 .276 0.0
Brendan Ryan 270 .298 -0.1
Russ Canzler 60 .288 -0.1
Eduardo Nunez 176 .284 -0.2

 

Outfielders:

Player PA’s wOBA WAR
Jacoby Ellsbury 621 .332 3.8
Brett Gardner 540 .323 2.8
Carlos Beltran 608 .338 1.5
Zoilo Almonte 270 .313 0.9
Alfonso Soriano 430 .322 0.3
Slade Heathcott 54 .303 0.2
Ichiro Suzuki 270 .288 0.1

 

Rotation:

Player IP ERA WAR
Masahiro Tanaka 198 3.19 4.5
Ivan Nova 182 3.57 3.1
C.C. Sabathia 182 3.93 2.5
Hiroki Kuroda 182 3.98 2.4
David Phelps 138 4.22 1.2
Michael Pineda 65 4.42 0.5

 

Bullpen:

Player IP ERA WAR
David Robertson 76 2.81 1.2
Shawn Kelley 51 3.87 0.3
Matt Thornton 46 3.79 0.2
Vidal Nuno 46 4.35 0.1
Preston Claiborne 41 4.17 0.1
Matt Daley 33 3.41 0.1
Cesar Cabral 20 3.75 0.1
Mark Montgomery 13 3.12 0.1
Adam Warren 56 4.23 0.0
Dellin Betances 51 3.93 0.0
Manny Banuelos 32 4.20 0.0
Jose Ramirez 18 3.77 0.0
Robert Coello 13 4.36 0.0
Bruce Billings 12 4.55 0.0
Nik Turley 12 3.96 0.0
Chase Whitley 10 3.95 0.0
David Herndon 8 4.30 0.0
Andrew Bailey 8 4.42 0.0
Shane Greene 6 4.55 0.0

 

 

This entry was posted in Analysis. Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to My FANS projections for the 2014 Yankees

  1. Squatchmo says:

    Jeter with 0.1 WAR? You’re severely underrating almost everyone except Tanaka. I respectfully disagree with almost all the sabre people– Pineda and Nova are likely to be better than Tanaka, Kuroda and Sabathia this year.

    • Chris says:

      The thing with Jeter is defense. He’s a terrible defensive shortstop, which really saps his value — and I’m not sure he’ll hit enough this year to be of much value at DH either.

      I agree with you on Nova, but I’m not so sure about Pineda. He has the upside, but I’m really not confident that he’ll be able to stay healthy. Not yet, at least.

Comments are closed.