(This post is being syndicated from Pinstriped Bible)

Travis Hafner has been better than anyone could have imagined this year. Given his history of DL trips, it was unclear if Hafner would even be able to stay on the field, never mind post a gaudy 148 wRC+. The soon-to-be 36-year-old dealt with a plethora of injuries in his career, averaging just 86 games played over the last 5 years. But other than a minor shoulder issue, Hafner has managed to stay on the field in 2013.

Pronk hasn’t quite been an everyday player as he’s been part of a strict platoon at DH. Nonetheless, he’s played in 36 of the team’s 46 games, putting him on pace for 127 games played—which would be his highest total since 2005. All told, he holds a robust .396 wOBA, good for best on the Yankees. While Hafner’s strong performance is unexpected, it’s not entirely shocking. He’s posted a wRC+ of 115 or higher every year since 2009. Most of it came in fragmented seasons though, due to his numerous injuries. There’s no denying that Hafner has been great, and it’s a little scary to think about what the team’s lineup would have looked like without him. But can we realistically expect him to continue to be a reliable offensive piece going forward?

Despite his impressive contributions, there’s nothing underlying his performance that screams fluke. In a small sample, the most telling signs of a hitter’s talent are those associated with plate discipline. According to research done by Russell Carleton at Baseball Prospectus, strikeout and walk rates stabilize sooner than other hitter statistics. Hafner looks very good in that regard. He’s walked in an exceptional 14% of plate appearances and has managed to limit his strikeout total as well.

Power has always been a hallmark of Hafner’s game and this year has been no different. Despite limited playing time, he’s hit 8 home runs and holds a .270 ISO. Even with Yankee Stadium’s short porch, Hafner’s probably not going to keep hitting for power like he has. Nonetheless, I wouldn’t expect his power output to regress too far downward, either. His numbers may seem a bit unsustainable, but it’s worth noting that almost half of the balls he’s hit have been fly balls. It’s still a small sample size, but FB% stabilizes relatively quickly. With 74 balls in play this year, Hafner’s basically reached the point where half of this performance can be attributed to his fly ball hitting prowess, with the other half to random chance. His 20.5% HR/FB rate is certainly not absurd compared to his 18.5% career mark. So if the fly balls continue, so should most of the homers. He also doesn’t appear to have been exceptionally lucky on balls in play. His .297 BABIP is higher than what he posted last season, but falls in line with what he’s done in the past.

In terms of baseball skills, there’s little reason to believe that Pronk will stop performing. Despite his health issues, he hasn’t lost the ability to hit and has looked better than ever this season. Avoiding injury is clearly the biggest hurdle he needs to avoid. He has been uncharacteristically healthy this year, but could realistically go down at any time. As a result, the Yankees need to do everything in their power to make sure he says on the field. As painful as it is to watch Ben Francisco play, utilizing a strict platoon is probably the best option for the Yankees. This enables them to decrease the probability that Hafner gets injured while still leveraging him in situations where he’s most effective. Hafner has been a savior for a Yankees’ lineup that has been decimated by injuries. Hopefully he can continue to produce, but even if he were to hit the DL tomorrow, he’s done a fine job of helping the team tread water with Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira on the shelf.

Photo By Keith Allison [CC-BY-SA-2.0] via Wikimedia Commons

When Hughes appeared to be turning the corner, I wrote about how his slider had become a difference maker. The pitch has been dominant, against which batters have posted a paltry 18 wRC+. However, his slider can be thrown out the window when his heater is leaking over the middle of the plate, and it’s become impossible to predict which starts he’ll be able to locate his fastball, and those in which he he’ll be unable to. It’s too straight of an offering for it not to be precise. Heck, sometimes when it’s located well it gets pounded. Both of Chris Dickerson‘s homers looked to be on the corners last night. (video: first and second homer). Fastball command is essential for just about any pitcher, but when Hughes’ can’t get a feel for it, he doesn’t get lucky in the way that a guy with a lot of movement can.

In talking with the media before last night’s game, Hughes thinks he may have figured out a mechanical issue with his release point of the fastball (via Chad Jennings):

“I felt like I was maybe on the side of the ball a little bit, which tends (to cause) my fastball to come back over the middle of the plate,” Hughes said. “My bullpen, I tried to focus on staying behind the baseball and continue to stay aggressive. It wasn’t any drastic changes or anything.”

In pitching terms, getting behind the baseball essentially means better squaring up the release point. Think of it as back of the hand directly facing the centerfield wall at the point of release. Any slight release at the side will cause the ball to leak one way or the other, which Hughes is claiming to be the issue.

To confirm this, I took a look at some PITCHf/x data on Texas Leaguers, comparing Hughes great four starts between April 18th and May 4th, his two recent bad ones on May 10th and 15th, and last night’s outing. First, a fastball release point comparison:

It’s pretty obvious that his arm slot has been all over the place, but it looks like he got on top of the ball a little bit more last night. It’s also evident that his release point took a dip during his two recent poor performances. Generally, a drop in arm slot like that can increase fastball movement, which is fine for some pitchers. However, Hughes’ loses his ability to pinpoint his pitches at that slot. Now the question is: how much did his different release point affect his fastball movement?

From this GIF, a cause and effect relationship is confirmed. With the lower release point and not getting behind the ball, Hughes is generating more movement to the left from the catcher’s perspective. In the first and third frames of the GIF (his hot streak and last night vs. Baltimore), the movement to the left is to a lesser degree thanks to his higher release. This certainly explains why some of fastballs targeted in on lefties or away from righties leak out to the heart of the plate.

The results between these two periods are night and day as well. In the 4/18-5/4 period, Hughes generated whiffs 10.9% of the time. In his duds vs. Kansas City and Seattle, swing and misses dropped to 3.2%. Last night, his whiff rate was boosted to 9.7% on the heater. What a difference it appears his arm slot makes.

Is this what’s holding Phil back from being a reliable third starter or better? It very well may be part of the equation, but we can’t know for sure if mastering his release point would be a cure all. Repeatable mechanics are essential for any pitcher, and it appears that when Hughes gets out of whack, things can go downhill in a hurry.

Unfortunately, it just seems we’ll never know which version of Phil is going to take the hill on a night in and night out basis. Much of the negativity directed at Hughes stems from him never living up to his billing as a top prospect, but in reality, he’s been a solid starter. Given his track record, some team is going to be willing to pay him at the end of the year. Plus, at 27 (in June) with a mechanical issue that seems correctable, Hughes still has potential to grow as a pitcher. Maybe this is being too optimistic, but if he can gain some consistency in his release, he could become a steady third starter. Otherwise, he’ll continue to frustrate fans with flashes of dominance and instances of incompetence.

Photo By Keith Allison (Flickr: 20110829-0983) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

After shutting down the Blue Jays last Friday, I wondered: Is Hiroki Kuroda the Yankees’ best pitcher? This year, he’s been the de facto ace of the staff. This is no knock against CC Sabathia, who still has posted strong numbers despite the scrutiny of his velocity. When push comes to shove, Sabathia deserves the ball in a do or die spot. But, Kuroda deserves an immense amount of credit.

Since joining the Yankees last season, Kuroda has made 44 starts (including two postseason outings), and the Yankees have won 27 of those games (61.4%). He’s posted a stellar 3.04 regular season ERA, and a 2.81 ERA in a 16 inning postseason sample. He’s been nothing short of fantastic, and has certainly exceeding expectations before donning the pinstripes. While he was a very good pitcher with the Dodgers, nobody could have foresaw this excellence after transitioning to the American League.

What’s been most impressive about Kuroda is his consistency. It seems that day in and day out, Hiroki can be penciled in to the seventh or eighth inning, allowing only a couple of runs. To figure out just how steady he’s been, I crunched some numbers using game score, a statistic Bill James invented to measure the quality of an individual start. The computation of the stat can be found here.

According to Baseball-Reference, a game score of 50 is considered average. John Dewan wrote that any game score of 65 and higher should be considered a gem, noting the fact that over the past 10 seasons (dated from 2011), a team wins 81.5% of the time a starter posts a score of 65 or better. Based on this information, 17 of Kuroda’s 44 (38.6%) starts have been “gems”, while 31 of them have been average or better (70.4%). For the sake of comparison, Kuroda’s delivered a better portion of gems since last season than Sabathia, who met the qualification in a third of his 36 starts.

Kuroda’s mean game score is 57.8, which while not considered a gem under Dewan’s definition, is certainly very good. His median mark is slightly lower at 57.5. Kuroda’s standard deviation is 16.4, so when he falls one half of a deviation below the mean, he’s slightly below average (57.8-8.2=49.6). Keeping in mind a normal distribution, and using the NORMDIST function in excel, the probability of Kuroda being average or better is 68.3%. The probability of him tossing a gem is a little less than one in three.

How does game score correlate to team wins? Back in 2007, SABR’s Jeff Angus examined team winning percentages vs. its starter’s game score. As a preface, some of this data has certainly changed over the past few seasons, but it is certainly a solid baseline to measure against Kuroda. Here’s what he found for 2007:

How often has Kuroda fit into these categories?

For this analysis, I’ll consider anything 39 or below (since it brings win percentage to 28% or less) a dud. Kuroda has only tossed six duds since joining the Yanks. Essentially, Kuroda has at least been competitive in 86% of his starts (70% or more if you want to go by a game score 50 or greater), which is truly remarkable. Like I said at the beginning of this piece, it seems as if he can be counted on night in and night out, and his game scores certainly support this notion.

There is no guarantee a 38 year-old pitcher like Kuroda can hold up the rest of the season, but it sure seems like nothing is stopping him. He’s been the backbone of the rotation since joining the club last year – carrying the load while others have scuffled (Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova) or dealt with injuries (Sabathia and Andy Pettitte). Simply put, there really isn’t anything not to like about Kuroda, and his track record instills confidence going forward.

Most of the team’s best hitting prospects have struggled this year. Mason Williams, Slade Heathcott, Tyler Austin, Ramon Flores, and Angelo Gumbs have all failed to live up to expectations at the plate, while Cito Culver and Dante Bichette Jr. have cemented themselves as flops. Nonetheless, there have been some pleasant surprises in the organization.

J.R. Murphy: Murphy had consistently underachieved at the plate since being drafted in the second round back in 2008. He’s stepped up his game this year though, posting a .284/.375/.457 line in AA Trenton. His plate discipline numbers have been particularly good—he’s walked almost as much as he’s struck out (17:20). He could be bumped up to AAA Scranton before long. It’s looking like he might be in the Bronx next year at some point. He’s clearly a good hitter, but his defense is still suspect. Hopefully, he’ll be able to stay behind the plate long enough to bridge the gap until Gary Sanchez is ready.

Rob Refsnyder: A fifth round pick last year, Refsnyder has turned lots of heads by mashing in both class A Tampa and class A Charleston. In 131 PA’s in Tampa, he’s hitting .339/.443/.468 His BABIP sits at .387, so he’s been a little lucky. Still though, he’s walking more than he’s striking out and showing modest power. He’s also 12 for 12 in stolen base attempts. It’s a tiny sample size, but there’s also a lot to like. He’s 21 already, so I would imagine he’ll be moved to AA Trenton before long. He’s made it pretty clear he’s too good for A-ball. It will be interesting to see how he handles the challenge of the high minors.

Gregory Bird: Drafted in 2011, Bird didn’t see regular playing time until this season due to injury. The Yankees paid over slot for him when he was drafted, so they clearly saw some potential in his bat. He’s no longer a catcher, which limits his value, but it’s looking like he might have a good enough bat to hack it at first. He’s dominated in class A Charleston: .295/.432/.482.  In particular  he’s exhibited an outstanding eye at the plate, walking in almost 20% of his plate appearances. He’s still a long way off, but he’s done a lot to establish himself as a legit prospect.

The Yankees are only a month and a half into Ichiro Suzuki‘s new contract, and it already looks like they will rue the day the two sides reached a deal. Well, perhaps the business side of the organization is pleased, but I digress. Ichiro is hitting .239/.280/.328 through 145 plate appearances, and finally broke a 22 at-bat hitless skid last night. At this point, it is hard to be optimistic about him going forward.

It shouldn’t be a surprise that Ichiro is scuffling. From 2011 through 2012, Ichiro hit .277/.308/.361 in 1,384 plate appearances. That’s good (bad, really) for a 84 wRC+ in his age 37 and 38 seasons. With this in mind, I can’t imagine a scenario in which the organization’s baseball ops department expected him to revert back to his previous performance. Ichiro was a beast last September (.362/.376/.486 in 112 plate appearances), but sample sizes do not justify a two year, $13M deal for a guy pushing 40 that has barely hit since he turned 37. This isn’t groundbreaking stuff here, but it sure is frustrating. Now, the Yankees are stuck with an overpaid fourth outfielder, who will probably get more playing time than deserved based on reputation alone.

One might point to Ichiro’s low .261 BABIP this season as a leading indicator of oncoming improvement, especially considering his .357 mark in his career through 2010. However, from 2011-2012, Suzuki’s BABIP stood at .297. Again, that’s across nearly 1,400 plate appearances, and thus much more likely his current true talent level.

Ichiro’s contact and batted ball stats further the notion that his BABIP hasn’t been subject to bad luck. Keeping in mind that contact rate and line drive rate stabilize at 100 and 150 plate appearances respectively, there are legitimate reasons to be concerned about Ichiro going forward. Remember, he’s had 145 plate appearances, so we can rely on his contact rate and just about trust his line drive rate thus far. Compared to last season, Ichiro is putting the bat on the ball 5.4% less often, while 3.6% below his lifetime percentage*. His line drive rate, while not officially stable yet but pretty close, stands 9.2% less than last year and 5% worse than his stateside career*. These discrepancies tell a clear story of a guy not being able to put good wood on the ball, a classic indication of age overcoming a once great hitter. But then again, this isn’t a surprise for anyone who has been aware of his performance the past two years.

To answer the title’s question: Ichiro’s certainly done as a regular, and truthfully has been finished since 2011 with the exception of one month. The other outfield candidates are simply better: Brett Gardner gets on base more frequently and is an elite defender, there’s reason to be cautiously optimistic about Vernon Wells for the rest of the season, andCurtis Granderson needs no rationalization. ZiPS projects Gardner, Wells, and Granderson to post wOBAs of .318, .336, .349 respectively the rest of the season, while Ichiro is projected to post a lowly .295 mark going forward. Looking at fWAR, the rest of season projections tell the same story, with Ichiro expected to be a full win less valuable than Wells, and 1.5 wins fewer than Gardner and Granderson each. So even if you find his regression in contact and line drive rates to be in a sample too small for your liking, a completely unbiased projection system is sounding the alarm.

The funny thing is that ZiPS hasn’t really changed its projection on Ichiro, as it pegged him to have a .301 wOBA and 0.8 fWAR in the preseason. Despite all this negative data, Ichiro will not strictly be a bench player. There’s still some semblance of value in his legs and glove, and he’ll likely play when Wells DH’s or needs a day off. Moreover, he could carve out a role as a late-game pinch hitter while guys like Jayson Nix remain starters. In terms of on-field production, the Yankees are sure to be in the red, considering his $13M contract, but at this point Joe Girardi cannot afford to regularly play a near automatic out given the other offensive concerns with the lineup. Nonetheless, because of his stature, I fully expect Ichiro to be handed more at-bats than he deserves.

*His career marks do not include his rookie year, as plate discipline and batted ball stats were not yet tracked.

Photo by Keith Allison on Flickr (Originally posted to Flickr as “Ichiro Suzuki”) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

This year, Adams has been uncharacteristically healthy aside from a back injury in spring training. And thus far, he’s done nothing but hit. His wOBA sits at a robust .408. His strong performance is backed by healthy plate discipline stats as well: 11.5 BB% and 16.8 K%. He most likely would be in the majors already if not for a rule that required him to stay in the minors until today (rule took effect when he was released in March). Most of Adams’ experience in the minors was at second base until he was moved over to third in the middle of last season. He’s also seen time at first this year. Adams has never played shortstop, but he’ll at least provide some defensive versatility. At worst, Adams should provide an offensive upgrade over right-handed bats Chris Nelson, Ben Francisco, and even Jayson Nix. Adams is no great shakes defensively due to a debilitating ankle injury from 2010 that continues to affect his play. Nonetheless, he should be able to be adequate at the hot corner.

Adams may be 26, but he’s a very young 26 in terms of games played. All told, he’s played a total of 380 minor league games. Even though those games spread out over parts of six years, that’s only two and a half years’ worth of games. It’s probably fair to say that he still has some learning to do as a hitter. So there may even be some upside there. Given the team’s roster constitution, he should receive ample playing time at least until Kevin Youkilis is ready to return. Hopefully, Adams can capitalize on this opportunity by staying healthy and continuing to hit like he has in the minors.

As some of the Yankees’ walking wounded inch closer to the active roster, Brian Cashman will be busy creating space for those returning. Considering how many injuries the Yankees have been dealt, there’s going to be a pretty high 40-man turnover over the next couple of months. Who might go, and when? Let’s take a look at who needs to be added, and then who is likely to go.

There are currently six players on the 60-day (Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Francisco Cervelli, Michael Pineda, and Cesar Cabral) Assuming all six return (a big assumption), six guys will have to be taken off the 40-man roster. There are complications, however. For instance, Cabral was a Rule V pick a couple of years ago, and must spend 90 days on the 25-man roster this season to satisfy the draft rules. If the Yankees don’t like what they see from his rehab, perhaps they just let him go before they have to make a 40-man move. Moreover, of the other guys on the 60-day, some of them may have setbacks and never even return in 2013. There are other additions that will force the Yankees to reduce the expanded roster headcount as well: David Adams is expected to be added Wednesday, and Clay Rapada could return as well. Let’s delve into some names who could be gone:

Ben Francisco: He’s been terrible, but with Brennan Boesch optioned today, it appears he’ll live on a bit longer. I’d prefer him to be the first 40-man casualty when Adams is promoted Wednesday, but I expect one of the following two names to go first.

Chris Nelson: The Yankees don’t have much invested in him after acquiring him from Colorado for virtually nothing, so I imagine it wouldn’t be too hard to designate him for assignment. If the Yankees want to keep five outfielders, I’d bet Nelson is DFA’d to make room for Adams.

Melky Mesa: He’s striking out 41% of the time in Triple-A, and at age 26, there probably isn’t much upside here. The glove and power are his primary tools, but he’s struggled far too much to merit keeping him around much longer.

Alberto Gonzalez: Acquiring Gonzalez was simply a depth move with Eduardo Nunez going down, so don’t expect him to stick around very long. No trimming from the 40-man will be necessary when Nunez returns, but there’s no real need for Gonzalez on the roster when Nunez and Jayson Nix are eventually healthy.

Lyle Overbay: This is a bit further in the distance, but I suspect Lyle will be cut loose when Teixeira returns. The two of them can only play first base, and with Travis Hafner strictly a DH, keeping Overbay would hinder roster flexibility. Kudos to Lyle on the job he’s done, but his days are numbered. Even if Teixeira eventually requires season-ending surgery, it’s safe to say that Cashman would seek an upgrade.

Francisco Rondon: His addition to the 40-man this past offseason didn’t make much sense in the first place, but Rondon was relatively impressive in Spring Training. The organization tried him out as a starter in Double-A, but he recently was returned to the bullpen after struggling. He’s a LOOGY type and when push comes to shove, there isn’t any reason to stash that type of player on your 40 especially when he’s not contributing at the big league level.

Dellin Betances: After failing as a starter, Betances was recently shifted to the bullpen. Once a big time prospect and part of the Killer B’s trifecta, Betances is running out of time. This is his last option year, so he’ll have to stick on the 25-man in 2014. However, if he doesn’t show anything out of the bullpen in Triple-A soon, it might simply be time for the Yankees to cut their losses.

I’ve only given seven guys who may be cut, although I mentioned eight players who could be added in the coming months. A lot of things could change by then, and in reality, chances are all eight of those guys aren’t added. I’m personally not a fan of having two LOOGYs in a bullpen, so I don’t really see a need for Rapada or Cabral unless Logan goes down. Furthermore, there’s no guarantee that Teixeira, A-Rod, or Jeter make it back this season.

The good news is that nobody on the chopping block is likely to be missed. All seven listed are fringy players, who most likely will never make significant big league contributions going forward. Hopefully, things go well for all players on rehab and the Yankees are forced to let go of everyone listed, but a lot can change from now until then. These guys are simply the most obvious choices to be cut, should everything go as planned.

Just because the team has played much better since its inauspicious start doesn’t mean they are out of the woods just yet. The offense is depleted, 17th in the league in runs scored. Vernon Wells has cooled down significantly, and despite Travis Hafner‘s success, his health is a ticking time bomb. As presently constituted, outside of Hafner, Wells (meh), and Robinson Cano, nobody provides much confidence at the plate. Curtis Granderson, Kevin Youkilis, Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez (yes, Alex Rodriguez), can’t come back soon enough.

Despite the offensive woes, I’m certainly pleasantly surprised with what the team has done thus far. Am I concerned going forward? Of course. But good thing the team has created a margin of safety of sorts.

Now, let’s look out how the Yankees have performed compared (in terms of WAR) to an objective viewpoint, ZiPS preseason projections. For position players, I prorated projected WAR based on plate appearances. For pitchers, I prorated it based on innings pitched. Click the following “continue reading” button to see the breakdown.

It’s not much, but the Yankees have slightly exceeded ZiPS projections on a prorated basis, with both hitters and pitchers exceeding expectations equally. Considering the 0.6 WAR difference, the Yankees, at best, have won one more game than projected for 31 games. For clarification, the projected figure is not considering the players who are currently injured. So, the difference is based on the team the Yankees have fielded thus far.

For position players, the biggest surprises have been Hafner, Wells, Overbay, and Cervelli, accounting for 1.9 WAR greater than projected at this point. Anecdotal evidence supports this difference. Others to slightly outperform projections include Brett Gardner, Ichiro, Chris Stewart, and Cano.

The biggest laggards of the offense: Eduardo Nunez, Brennan Boesch, and Youkilis, performing 1.6 WAR worse than prorated projections. I’m not shocked by Nunez or Boesch, but I am slightly surprised to see Youkilis .5 WAR less than his projection at this stage. I suppose his back is a contributing factor to poorer performance.

Hiroki Kuroda and Phil Hughes have been the highest above projections for the pitching staff thus far. Kuroda has 1 WAR thus far, while ZiPS foresaw .5 at this stage on an innings pitched basis. Hughes has accumulated .3 WAR more than projected, and his recent string of starts certainly has a lot to do with it.

Of the pitchers, CC Sabathia is farthest behind his projection (.4 WAR less). I don’t think CC has been all that bad, but he’s certainly been adjusting to reduced velocity thus far and has dealt with some struggles. Regardless, he still has a 3.31 ERA and 3.94 FIP. The rest of the staff is no greater than +/- .2 WAR from their apportioned projection.

I have to give credit to this roster of miscasts. It hasn’t been the most enjoyable team to watch, but they are getting the job done while the stars lick their wounds. Time is of the essence, however. This group of guys is much more likely to underperform going forward, so the walking wounded can’t get healthy any sooner.

Following last night’s 5-4 victory over the Astros, the Yankees announced the acquisition if infielder Chris Nelson from Colorado. To make room for Nelson on the 40-man, Francisco Cervelli was placed on the 60-day disabled list. Nelson, 27, debuted with the Rockies in 2010, but didn’t get much tread until last season, in which he hit .301/.352/.458 in 377 PAs. He’s played mostly third and second base at the major league level, with limited experience at shortstop.

The Yankees already were skinny in the right-handed bat department, even when Kevin Youkilis was healthy, so Nelson will try to help fill the void with Jayson Nix during Youk’s absence. Compared to Nix, Nelson is a bit of an upgrade with the bat. Nix is off to a dreadful start at the dish, and is a career .214/.284/.364 hitter, so there isn’t much upside there. The one distinct advantage Nix holds over Nelson is the glove. Nix isn’t a defensive wizard, but he can hold his own unlike Nelson. UZR and DRS have Nix as an above average fielder at third and second, but poor at shortstop. I’ll get into Nelson’s poor fielding statistics shortly.

The trade probably means Corban Joseph is going  back on the shuttle to Scranton, after just being promoted a few days ago. Joseph has hit very well in AAA, and may very well be a better hitter than Nelson. However, Joseph has limited experience at third base, and isn’t exactly known for his glove anyway. Furthermore, the Yankees clearly prefer having an extra right-handed bat with Youkilis hitting the disabled list. It’s unfortunate for CoJo; in most other organizations, he probably would be getting a chance at the big league level. Tough luck for a guy with a 134 wRC+ last year in AAA, followed up by a 129 mark so far in 2013.

What might we anticipate Nelson to do at the plate? At first glance, judging by last season, he has a solid bat. However, 2012′s BABIP (.377) and line drive rate (25.1%) screamed for a regression this season, which has come. In 71 PAs, Nelson has struggled to a tune of a .242/.282/.318 slash line, even with a pretty high .333 BABIP. He won’t be that bad the rest of the way, as ZiPS projects an uptick for the remainder of the regular season: .266/.307/.416, but it will be interesting to see if there is an adjustment to that projection given that he’s leaving for a slightly less hitter friendly ballpark. The good news is that Nelson at least has a pretty strong minor league track record in two AAA stints, so last year wasn’t simply fueled by luck. There is certainly a degree of upside present.

Nelson isn’t anything to write home about with the glove, at least according to DRS and UZR. In 390 career innings at second, he has posted a dreadful -12.8 UZR and -12 DRS. At third, over 949 frames, he’s recored -17.1 UZR and -17 DRS. Additionally, he’s made 6 errors at second and 9 at third. Nelson’s only had 22 innings of big league experience at shortstop, so we can’t go by his statistics. However, based on the difficulty of shortstop, it isn’t hard to imagine that he’s any better there than the other two infield spots.

Given the offensive performance of Nix, I think Nelly, as Joe Girardi will probably call him, will get an opportunity to play immediately. The Yankees have lacked a lot of punch from the right side of the plate this season, and are probably hoping that Nelson can turn the clock back a year.

Photo by Jeffrey Beall (Own work) [CC-BY-SA-3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

I wasn’t expecting much out of Eduardo Nunez‘ bat this season, given his minor league performance and limited time at the major league level. Rather, like everyone else, I was much more concerned about his defense. But it’s getting to the point where is hitting, or lack there of, has become the intolerable facet of his game.

Through last night’s debacle against the Astros (hey, it happens), Nunez is hitting .169/.273/.185, a 32 wRC+. Per wRC+, he’s the worst hitting shortstop this season in all of baseball. Putting it nicely, Nunez isn’t making the best of this opportunity with Derek Jeter on the shelf.

Nunez isn’t this bad of a hitter, but that doesn’t mean he’s any good at the dish. His career 81 wRC+ is nothing to brag about, so even as his .204 BABIP regresses to the mean, it’s not like he’s going to be anything special. What’s more – the same flaws I illustrated in this article are recurring in 2013, so he’s not making any strides. He’s still popping the ball up a quarter of the time, and only hitting line drives a hair under 17% of his PAs.

Perhaps his lack of offense might be tolerable if Nunez was a wizard with the glove. Yes, he’s made big time improvements, but that’s not saying much considering what he once was. No scouts have raved about him, so it’s reasonable to believe that even with his defensive improvements, he’s still a below average defender.

Unfortunately, the internal options aren’t very appetizing. With Kevin Youkilis banged up, Jayson Nix is busy manning the hot corner (and might only be a marginal upgrade). That leaves the only other internal options as Addison Maruszak and Gil Velazquez, both in Triple-A, both no certain upgrade over Nunez, and both requiring a 40-man spot to be cleared – so no dice. Perhaps if Youkilis requires a DL-stint, Nix may see some tread at short, while someone like David Adams gets the nod at third.

Externally, the most obvious candidate appears to be Seattle’s Brendan Ryan, who perplexingly was benched for Robert Andino recently. Ryan can’t hit (career 73 wRC+), but is a known commodity with the glove. In his career, Ryan boasts a 12.2 UZR/150 and 94 DRS in a little under 4800 innings at shortstop. He shouldn’t cost much to acquire, and at least provides some semblance of value at the position. I wouldn’t anticipate any move outside of the organization just yet, given the early stage of the 2013 campaign. However, I do expect a move as insurance for the position, given the uncertainty of Jeter’s ankle and the outlook of the internal options, including Nunez.

Looking back, it’s pretty remarkable that the Yankees didn’t look to shore up the position in the offseason. It’s not like Jeter’s setback, given his age and nature of the injury, was unforeseeable. Nunez’ track record doesn’t instill confidence, either. It’s truly remarkable how much blind faith the organization has put into Nunez, with the results consistently being the same: bad. Now, the organization is paying for it’s oversight.

By Keith Allison (Flickr) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons