Fangraphs hosts a crowdsourcing platform that allows fans to fill out ballots predicting how players will perform statistically in 2014. All of the projections they receive are aggregated to create the FANS projections you see on individual player pages. If you haven’t checked it out yet, I highly recommend you do so. It’s a lot of fun (well, at least I think so) and forms the basis for a set of player projections that could theoretically provide some insight not captured by the algorithm-based projection systems.
My projections for the 2014 Yankees are below. I have the team’s hitters totaling 18.5 WAR and their pitchers with 16.4. Last season, these totals would have ranked 19th and 12th in baseball, respectively. This works out to about 83 wins, which jives with what PECOTA (82) and Davenport (85) are forecasting this season. The Yankees are clearly good enough to be in the playoff hunt, but at this early hour, it’s not clear if they’ll have the talent to keep up with the Rays and Red Sox. Plenty can change between now and October, though.
Catchers:
Player | PA’s | wOBA | WAR |
Brian McCann | 441 | .331 | 3.7 |
Francisco Cervelli | 162 | .283 | 0.7 |
J.R. Murphy | 54 | .299 | 0.2 |
Austin Romine | 54 | .285 | 0.1 |
Infielders:
Player | PA’s | wOBA | WAR |
Kelly Johnson | 540 | .317 | 1.9 |
Mark Teixeira | 580 | .328 | 1.5 |
Scott Sizemore | 292 | .311 | 0.5 |
Brian Roberts | 270 | .298 | 0.3 |
Dean Anna | 162 | .283 | 0.2 |
Derek Jeter | 330 | .305 | 0.1 |
Corban Joseph | 60 | .309 | 0.1 |
Jose Pirela | 54 | .276 | 0.0 |
Brendan Ryan | 270 | .298 | -0.1 |
Russ Canzler | 60 | .288 | -0.1 |
Eduardo Nunez | 176 | .284 | -0.2 |
Outfielders:
Player | PA’s | wOBA | WAR |
Jacoby Ellsbury | 621 | .332 | 3.8 |
Brett Gardner | 540 | .323 | 2.8 |
Carlos Beltran | 608 | .338 | 1.5 |
Zoilo Almonte | 270 | .313 | 0.9 |
Alfonso Soriano | 430 | .322 | 0.3 |
Slade Heathcott | 54 | .303 | 0.2 |
Ichiro Suzuki | 270 | .288 | 0.1 |
Rotation:
Player | IP | ERA | WAR |
Masahiro Tanaka | 198 | 3.19 | 4.5 |
Ivan Nova | 182 | 3.57 | 3.1 |
C.C. Sabathia | 182 | 3.93 | 2.5 |
Hiroki Kuroda | 182 | 3.98 | 2.4 |
David Phelps | 138 | 4.22 | 1.2 |
Michael Pineda | 65 | 4.42 | 0.5 |
Bullpen:
Player | IP | ERA | WAR |
David Robertson | 76 | 2.81 | 1.2 |
Shawn Kelley | 51 | 3.87 | 0.3 |
Matt Thornton | 46 | 3.79 | 0.2 |
Vidal Nuno | 46 | 4.35 | 0.1 |
Preston Claiborne | 41 | 4.17 | 0.1 |
Matt Daley | 33 | 3.41 | 0.1 |
Cesar Cabral | 20 | 3.75 | 0.1 |
Mark Montgomery | 13 | 3.12 | 0.1 |
Adam Warren | 56 | 4.23 | 0.0 |
Dellin Betances | 51 | 3.93 | 0.0 |
Manny Banuelos | 32 | 4.20 | 0.0 |
Jose Ramirez | 18 | 3.77 | 0.0 |
Robert Coello | 13 | 4.36 | 0.0 |
Bruce Billings | 12 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
Nik Turley | 12 | 3.96 | 0.0 |
Chase Whitley | 10 | 3.95 | 0.0 |
David Herndon | 8 | 4.30 | 0.0 |
Andrew Bailey | 8 | 4.42 | 0.0 |
Shane Greene | 6 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
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