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This post is horribly off-topic from Pinstripe Pundits’ typical coverage, so feel free to ignore it if you don’t care about NASCAR prospects. But this is something I’ve been working on and wanted to publish somewhere as a one-off post. Pinstripe Pundits is that somewhere. 

For the past 3+ years, I have built and refined a stats-based projection system for baseball prospects: KATOH. KATOH appeared most prominently on FanGraphs, where I covered prospects until yesterday, when I stepped down to pursue another opportunity in baseball.

In what follows, I apply a similar methodology to NASCAR prospects.

I built a statistical model using historical data that attempts to forecast each driver’s total number of top-10 finishes over his first five Monster Energy Cup seasons. (I also tried to forecast wins, but found them to be much less fluky – and obviously rarer – than top-10s. Both of those traits make wins tricky to predict.) The model considers a variety of factors to arrive at these projections, including: level of competition, finishing position, crash frequency, age, quality of equipment and sample of races run. In addition to the point estimate for number of top-10s, I have also provided two percentages for each driver: (1) The odds that he or she will record at least 60 top-10s and (2) The odds that he or she will record at least one top-10.

The 60 top-10 threshold is meant to provide a rough sense of how likely each driver is to be a star. For reference, Clint Bowyer and Joey Logano recorded 61 and 60 top-10s, respectively, over their first five seasons (both from 2009-2013). So the 60+ Top-10s metric can be thought of as the odds that a driver will be at least as good as Bowyer/Logano.

Eligible for this list are all drivers, regardless of age or experience, who:

• Ran fewer than 10 NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series races in 2017; and
• Ran at least 10 races across the NASCAR Xfinity Series, the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series, the ARCA Series, the NASCAR K&N Pro East Series and the NASCAR K&N Pro West Series in 2017. (Sorry, Alex Bowman – your stint as a simulator driver left me very little data to work with!)

Finally, here are a couple of things this analysis does not do, for better or for worse:

1) This list does not attempt to identify prospects who would fare best in a cup car in 2018. Many of the prospects near the top of this list are teenagers who have barely even cracked the truck series (Harrison Burton, Todd Gilliland, etc.). These are long-term projections, designed to predict how a driver will fare over his first (or in some cases, next) five seasons in cup, whenever those happen to occur.

2) This list does not attempt to answer the question: “How much success would this driver have in cup assuming all drivers have equal equipment.” Rather, it simply attempts to answer: “How much success will this driver have in cup?” NASCAR is far from a meritocracy, as many drivers receive opportunities based on name value, the ability to attract sponsors, business connections, personal wealth or other factors. Danica Patrick, Jeffrey Earnhardt, Brandon Jones, Paul Menard and Brendan Gaughan are just a few of the most glaring examples from recent memory. These projections don’t attempt to correct for this injustice, but accept it as a factor that has always existed and will therefore influence future results in a similar manor. My work diverges from the excellent prospect work done by David Smith over at Motorsports Analytics, who “[does not] care about marketability or how much funding a young driver has.”

On to the prospects!

1) William Byron
Top-10s: 43.0
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 38%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 89%

Byron took the Xfinity Series by storm last year, winning both Championship and Rookie of the Year honors. One couldn’t reasonably ask for much more from a 19-year-old in his first crack at the Xfinity Series. Byron was similarly dominant in the Truck Series in 2016. He owes some of his success to his JR Motorsports equipment. But even so, Byron’s blend of youth and performance is rare. He’s the best prospect in NASCAR and I’m eager to see what he can do at the highest level with Hendrick Motorsports in 2018.

2) Christopher Bell
Top-10s: 33.2
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 31%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 73%

Bell dominated the truck series last year, posting an average finish under 6th and taking home the championship. He also ran well in eight Xfinity races, highlighted by a win at Kansas. He will move to Xfinity full-time in 2018 with Joe Gibbs, putting him a stone’s throw away from cup. At 23, Bell isn’t terribly young for someone making his first foray into Xfinity, but his on-track performance has been undeniably excellent.

3) Harrison Burton
Top-10s: 30.8
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 25%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 49%

Burton was born in the year 2000 — the week of Dale Earnhardt’s last Cup victory — and raced most of last season as a 16-year-old. But despite his youth, Burton won the East championship, ran decently in six truck races and won his sold ARCA race. Burton will run nine truck races with Kyle Busch Motorsports in 2018, along with a smattering of ARCA and K&E Pro East races. Come 2019, Burton will finally be old enough to compete full-time in one of the big three series. Burton still has a lot to prove, but early indicators suggest he could have a better career than his father, Jeff.

4) Cole Custer
Top-10s: 28.1
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 19%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 77%

Custer turned in a fine season in Xfinity last year at the tender age of 19. A Stewart-Haas development driver, Cust is already one of the best drivers in Xfinity and figures to get better as he matures. He should matriculate to cup in the near future and could be a household name a few years from now.

5) Todd Gilliland
Top-10s: 26.9
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 24%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 47%

Gilliland performed excellently in both the East and West Series, taking home the championship in the latter. He was also competitive in six truck races driving for Kyle Busch Racing. He’s been nothing short of dominant as a teenager, but so far has only done so against weak competition while driving good equipment. Gilliland doesn’t turn 18 until May, so he’s too young to run full-time in the truck series, but he will run a limited schedule with Kyle Busch in 2018.

6) Austin Cindric
Top-10s: 26.3
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 20%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 58%

Cindric performed as an 18-year-old in the truck series last year, driving for Brad Keselowski. Despite his youth, he placed third in the standings with 16 top-10s and an average finish of 10th. He’ll race part-time in Xfinity in 2018, sharing a ride with Ty Majeski and Chase Briscoe. If Cindric performs with Roush — which he likely will — he could wind up on the fast track to a good cup ride.

7) John Hunter Nemechek
Top-10s: 25.4
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 19%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 54%

Nemechek ran once again performed decently in the truck series in 2017, capturing two victories and posting an average finish of 14th. He’ll need to find a way to see more checkered flags — he crashed out of five of 23 races last year — but was competitive week in and week out. Nemechek will move to Xfinity in 2018, where he’ll run a part-time schedule for Chip Ganassi.

It’s worth noting that my model likely artificially inflates Nemechek’s projections a bit: Since Joe Nemechek start-and-parked in several truck races last year, my dumb computer (likely incorrectly) concludes that NEMCO’s equipment isn’t good.

8) Justin Haley
Top-10s: 24.0
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 18%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 53%

Haley did quite well in a GMS truck last year, despite not turning 18 until April. Though he didn’t make it to victory lane, Haley contended for top-10s every week and posted an average finish of 11th. He also won two of his three ARCA starts. It will be exciting to see how much he improves in his second go around in the truck series.

9) Kaz Grala
Top-10s: 23.4
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 16%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 57%

Grala’s foray into the truck series went quite well last year. The 18-year-old opened the season with a win at Daytona and racked up 10 more top-10s the rest of the way. He will advance to Xfinity next year where he’ll drive for JGL full-time. That will be a challenging assignment for Grala, who crashed out of over one-fourth of the truck races last year, but he clearly has talent.

10) Chase Briscoe
Top-10s: 22.9
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 16%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 59%

Briscoe followed up a 2016 ARCA championship with a strong rookie season in the truck series driving for Brad Keselowski. He took home ten top-10s, including a win at Homestead, and was running at the end of all 23 races. But unlike some of the names above him, Briscoe isn’t a teenager — he’ll race as a 23-year-old in 2018. He’ll race part-time in Xfinity in 2018, sharing a ride with Ty Majeski and Austin Cindric.

11) Noah Gragson
Top-10s: 22.1
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 16%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 49%

Gragson is another up-and-comer who had some success as an 18-year-old in the truck series. He took won at Martinsville and ran in and around the top-10 just about every week. Gragson will return to his KBR ride in 2018 and could be a championship contender.

12) Ben Rhodes
Top-10s: 20.5
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 13%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 55%

Rhodes posted in average finish of 12th in the truck series while driving for Steve Turner — a sizable improvement over his 2016 performance. It will be interesting to see if the 20-year-old can continue to build on the improvements he made in 2017.

13) Matt Tifft
Top-10s: 18.7
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 10%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 64%

Tifft performed well as a 21-year-old in his first full season in Xfinity, posting an average finish of 14th. However, that performance was less impressive considering he drove for the powerhouse that is Joe Gibbs Racing. Tift has some talent, but it’s a bit disappointing that he wasn’t close to dominant in top-notch equipment.

14) Derek Kraus
Top-10s: 17.3
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 17%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 34%

Kraus placed third in the East standings at the tender age of 15 last year. He’s obviously still a couple years away from even a full-time truck series ride. But Kraus’ performance paired with his extreme youth is extremely impressive. Want to really feel old? Kurt Busch qualified on the pole the day before Kraus was born.

15) Chase Purdy
Top-10s: 17.0
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 10%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 24%

Although he didn’t make it to victory lane, Purdy was one of the most competitive drivers in the East series. The 17-year-old placed 4th in the standings and rattled off four consecutive poles over the summer. Puffy drove for David Gilliland last year — not necessarily a powerhouse team.

16) Darrell Wallace, Jr.
Top-10s: 17.0
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 14%
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 65%

Wallace lost his ride with Roush midway through the year due to sponsorship issues, but did a fine job in the races he did run. He recorded the 5th best average finish among Xfinity regulars with more than a handful of starts. Wallace also ran well in 4 Cup starts with Richard Petty Motorsports, with whom he’ll run full-time in 2018.

17) Daniel Hemric
Top-10s: 15.9
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 9%
Odds of 1+ Top-10:  67%

Hemric fates well his first year in Xfinity, posting an average finish of 13th while driving for Richard Childress. Hemric is a 27-year-old who hasn’t won a race in any major series; but he’s been consistently solid in both Trucks and Xfinity. Perhaps he’ll improve on last year’s performance in 2018 and parlay it into a Cup ride.

18) Ryan Truex
Top-10s: 14.9
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 9%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 46%

Though technically not a prospect thanks to his premature foray into cup a few years ago, Truex got his career back on track last year with a strong performance in the truck series. Driving for Shigeaki Hattori — a mid-tier team by all accounts — Truex placed 9th in the standings. Now 25, Truex will drive for Kaulig Racing next season in the Xfinity series.

19) Brennan Poole
Top-10s: 13.4
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 6%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 63%

Poole placed in the top-10 of the Xfinity standings for the second year in a row, but

did so while driving for Chip Ganassi — some of the best equipment in the business. As a 26-year-old who was merely good in two years with elite equipment, Poole might have a tough time landing a good cup ride. He’s seemingly and inexplicably ride-less as of this writing, which further clouds his future.

20) Ryan Reed
Top-10s: 12.2
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 5%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 55%

Reed has now recorded four full seasons in Xfinity, and 2017 was his worst by average finish. He’s still just 23 and remains a good Xfinity driver; but merely good Xfinity drivers rarely make it to cup. The silver-ish lining is that all his high average finish was largely inflated by his seven DNFs, rather than consistently poor performance. He’ll return to Roush’s No. 16 car for another year in Xfinity.

21) Brandon Jones
Top-10s: 11.0
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 5%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 46%

Jones took a huge step back in his second year in Xfinity. Driving for Richard Childress, Jones posted an average finish of 21st last year and recorded just three top-10s. However, he has run well in his smattering of races in lower series. Jones still hasn’t turned 21, so he has age on his side, but his 2017 performance was mediocre at best. Nonetheless, Jones will drive for Joe Gibbs Racing for 2018. Perhaps the change of scenery will do him good and he’ll break out this year. If not, it certainly won’t be due to lack of opportunity.

22) Ronnie Bassett, Jr.
Top-10s: 10.1
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 5%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 18%

As a 22-year-old who’s yet to run a race in any of the big three series, Bassett’s placement here may seem a bit peculiar. But he was one of the most competitive drivers in the East series last year, despite driving for a family-owned team. Hopefully he gets an opportunity in the truck series soon, because he appears to have quite a bit of talent.

23) Tyler Reddick
Top-10s: 8.9
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 4%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 49%

Reddick fared decently in his first foray into Xfinity, posting an average finish of 17th in a part-time schedule with Ganassi. Given the quality of his equipment, however, his performance was somewhat disappointing. Regardless, he will replace William Byron at JR Motorsports in 2018. It will be interesting to see what he can do in a full 33 races with elite equipment.

24) Ruben Garcia, Jr.
Top-10s: 8.8
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 4%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 50%

A product of NASCAR’s Peak Mexico Series, Garcia turned in a solid season in the East series as a 21-year-old. He posted an average finish of 8th and placed 5th in the standings while driving in non-elite equipment. It would be interesting to see what he could do in the truck series.

25) Dalton Sargeant
Top-10s: 8.3
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 4%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 34%

Sargeant ran beet well in ARCA last year, placing second in the standings and visiting victory lane thrice. He also ran two truck races for MDM Motorsports at the end of last season where he wasn’t competitive. The 19-year-old will race full-time in the truck series next year for Maury Gallagher.

26) Christian Eckes
Top-10s: 8.3
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 5%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 29%

Eckes only ran half of the ARCA schedule last year, but ran quite well as a 16-year-old. Eckes obviously has a long way to go, but he’s run quite well in a small sample of races at a young age.

27) Chase Cabre
Top-10s: 7.9
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 3%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 12%

Cabre finished 6th in the East standings last year as a 20-year-old driving for Max Siegel — not elite equipment by any means. However, he’ll likely need to show a bit more before he earns a look in the more advanced series.

28) Justin Allgaier
Top-10s: 7.6
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 2%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 58%

Allgaier turned in his second consecutive excellent season in the Xfinity Series, finishing third in the standings. Allgaier returned to victory lane for the first time since 2012; but wasn’t as consistent as he was in 2016: His average finish climbed from 9th to 13th. As a 31-year-old who struggled in his Cup opportunities, Allgaier May never get another shot. His Xfinity performance suggests he has some talent, although JR Motorsports’ equipment certainly explains much of that success.

29) Zane Smith
Top-10s: 7.4
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 4%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 29%

Smith was very competitive in 17 lower-level races last year, with the majority coming in ARCA. He left his Venturini Motorsports ARCA ride mid-way through 2017, but was excellent in three late-season races with MDM Motorsports. He’ll open 2018 in the No. 41 MDM ARCA car.

30) Austin Theriault
Top-10s: 7.3
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 3%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 40%

Theriault dominated the ARCA series last year. Driving for Ken Schrader, he racked up 7 wins in 20 races to take home the championship. Still, as dominant as he was, Theriault is a 24-year-old who’s yet to prove himself in any of NASCAR’s big three series. Despite winning the ARCA championship last year, Theriault is seemingly without a ride.

31) Cody Coughlin
Top-10s: 6.9
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 2%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 26%

Coughlin ran the full truck series schedule last year with mediocre results: Only three top-10s in 23 starts. That performance was disappointing coming from a guy driving Duke Thorson equipment. Still, Coughlin had some good runs as a 21-year-old in the truck series, which not many drivers can say. He’ll drive GMS Racing’s No. 2 truck series this year.

32) Will Rodgers
Top-10s: 6.6
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 5%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 20%

Rodgers ran well in the West series last year and won both of the East races he entered. He’s 23, though, which is quite old for an East/West driver these days. He’ll move to ARCA in 2018, driving for Ken Schrader.

33) Austin Wayne Self
Top-10s: 6.0
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 3%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 20%

Self struggled in the truck series last year, splitting time between four under-funded teams. He had some good runs as a 21-year-old, but hasn’t yet done much to suggest he has a future in cup. He’ll drive for Niece Motorsports in 2018, with whom he posted an average finish of 18^th in four starts last year.

34) Ross Chastain
Top-10s: 5.6
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 3%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 24%

Chastain ran the full Xfinity schedule last year for Johnny Davis with little success. He only recorded two top-10s and recorded an average finish of 20th. Though the results were uninspiring, it’s saying something that Chastain managed to consistently run in the top-25 last year, given his equipment.

35) Grant Enfinger
Top-10s: 5.5
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 2%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 38%

A former ARCA champion, Enfinger finally advanced to the truck series in 2017 at the age of 32. He was quite competitive in Thorsport equipment, posting an average finish of 9th. However, as a 30-something driver, he is unlikely to get substantially better than he is now. He’ll return to his Thorsport ride for 2018.

36) Kody Vanderwal
Top-10s: 5.4
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 5%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 10%

Vanderwal ran the full West schedule last year with a family-run team as a 16-year-old. He only recorded two top-5s, but contended for the top-10 most weeks. It will be interesting to see what he’s able to do as he matures and/or gets opportunities in better equipment.

37) Tyler Dippel
Top-10s: 5.3
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 2%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 7%

Dippel held his own in the East series as a 16- and 17-year-old driving for non-elite teams. As with Vanderwal, it will be interesting to see what he’s able to do as he matures and/or gets opportunities in better equipment.

38) Johnny Sauter
Top-10s: 3.8
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 1%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 35%

Once again, Sauter was one of the very best drivers in the truck series last year. The 39-year-old won four races and narrowly missed winning his second consecutive championship. However, Sauter has given no indication that he wishes to give cup another shot.

39) Riley Herbst
Top-10s: 3.5
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 1%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 20%

Herbst moved from the West series to ARCA last year and posted an average finish of 9th. However, considering he was driving Gibbs equipment, it’s a bit disappointing he wasn’t more dominant. Herbst will return to Gibbs’ ARCA car next season as a 19-year-old.

40) Elliott Sadler
Top-10s: 3.4
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 0%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 51%

It feels strange calling Elliott Sadler a prospect. After all, he’s a 42-year-old who exhausted his rookie eligibility in the 1990s and has over 400 cup starts to his name. But he was arguably the best full-time Xfinity driver last year, which implies he could still hold his own in cup if he so desired. He doesn’t seem to desire that at this point and will vie for that elusive Xfinity championship again in 2018.

41) Spencer Davis
Top-10s: 3.3
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 1%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 12%

Davis ran 10 races between ARCA and the East series last year, placing in the top 10 in six of those races. Davis is a 19-year-old without much of a track record, but it would be interesting to see what he could do in good equipment.

42) Dillon Bassett
Top-10s: 3.1
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 1%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 6%

Bassett held his own in the East series last year driving for his family’s team. He wasn’t as competitive as his older brother, Ronnie, but is over a year younger.

43) Chris Eggleston
Top-10s: 2.9
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 2%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 19%

The 2015 West series champion, Eggleston was highly competitive again this year, finishing second to Todd Gilliland in the series standings. Eggleston turns 29 in March, however, making him quite old by prospect standards.

44) Jay Beasley
Top-10s: 2.8
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 1%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 7%

Beasley held his own in the East series last year, posting an average finish of 10th. He’ll be 26 this year, however, making him very old for such a low-level series.

45) Michael Annett
Top-10s: 2.8
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 0%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 33%

Annett placed ninth in the Xfinity standings last year, but did so driving for the powerhouse that is JR Motorsports. Considering he struggled mightily in his three years in the cup series, it’s unlikely the 31-year-old will get another go ‘round in cup. He hasn’t quite been the same since his injury at Daytona in 2013.

46) Michael Self
Top-10s: 2.4
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 2%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 15%

Self was one of the top drivers in the West series last year and also ran well in six ARCA starts. However, he’s already 27, meaning he’s probably too old to climb much further up the developmental ladder. He won the 2018 ARCA opener at Daytona last weekend, driving for Bill Venturini.

47) Blaine Perkins
Top-10s: 2.4
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 2%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 6%

Perkins took a step back in his second season in the West series driving for Steve Portenga, but still posted an average finish of 13th. He also recorded a 9th place finish in his lone ARCA race. Perkins’ performance in the West series hasn’t been great, but he’s shown glimpses of promise as a teenager.

48) Blake Koch
Top-10s: 2.4
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 0%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 26%

Koch was quite mediocre driving for Matt Kaulig in the Xfinity series last year. He won’t be back with Kaulig next year, as Ryan Truex will take over driving duties. Koch is 32 now, so it seems his days as a serious NASCAR prospect are behind him.

49) Dakoda Armstrong
Top-10s: 2.3
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 1%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 17%

Armstrong was running decently for JGL in the Xfinity series before he lost his ride due to sponsorship issues. Unfortunately for Armstrong, the outlook in the cup series isn’t great for a 26-year-old, mid-pack Xfinity driver.

50) Gus Dean
Top-10s: 2.1
Odds of 60+ Top-10s: 1%
Odds of 1+ Top-10: 13%

Dean recorded an average finish of 10th in his first full season in ARCA. He’s already 23, however, and will need to step up his performance in ARCA before he gets a look in even the truck series. He’s back driving for Kevin Cywinski for 2018.

And finally, here is a tabelized summary of all eligible drivers: